How to expect the unexpected : the science of making predictions-and the art of knowing when not to

"How can you be a hundred percent sure you will win a bet? Why did so many Pompeiians stay put while Mount Vesuvius was erupting? Are you more likely to work in a kitchen if your last name is Baker? Ever since the dawn of human civilization, we have been trying to make predictions about what the world has in store for us. For just as long, we have been getting it wrong. In How to Expect the Unexpected, statistician Kit Yates uncovers the surprisi...